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CenSES annual report 2011
19
CenSES annual report 2011
19
models. Our US partner Joint Global Change
Research Institute calculates the long term devel-
opment of global economy, energy supply, land
use and climate with the equilibrium model Global
Change Assessment Model (GCAM) in a 100 year
perspective for 14 regions of the world (see figure).
Different scenarios are then projected down into
different regions by three technology specific mod-
els: World Gas Model (WGM) from the University of
Maryland is used for global gas and oil markeds,
the EMPS model of SINTEF is used for the European
power market while MARKAL fromTsinghua Univer-
sity in Beijing is used in regional energy systems in
China. A new energy system investment model for
the European system is developed by NTNU in co-
operation with SINTEF.
In addition, new methodologies are developed to
integrate these models, in particular the evaluation
of which investments to do where and when to en-
sure development in the desired direction. Further-
more, the project assesses suitable regulations and
policies to implement the recommended strategies
in different regions.
LinkS - Linking global and regional energy Strategies
The project «Linking global and regional energy
Strategies (LinkS)» analyses how global strategies
can be used as long term guidelines for develop-
ment of energy supply and technologies in regional
energy systems.
Today, regions like the EU have quite ambitious
strategies for renewable energy and emission miti-
gation, while others have no specific strategies yet.
If rapidly growing economies like Brazil, Russia,
India and China delay their emission reduction ef-
forts, the OECD countries have to do correspond-
ingly more to keep total GHG emissions within nec-
essary limits.
We therefore have to find strategies that are efficient
and acceptable in several regions. For exmple, what
would be the consequence of implementing a “20-
20-20” type of strategy for China? We will also de-
velop a methodology to sort regions and countries
to enable recommendation of mitigation strategies
depending on the level of economic and industrial
development for that specific region.
The partners in LinkS employ several energy system
Figure from LinkS showing the links between global and regional models