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CenSES annual report 2011
18
RA 5 Scenario Development
RA5 consists of four work packages:
- WP1 Scenario definition and user interaction
- WP2 Scenario analysis supervision
- WP3 Performance monitoring and research iden-
tification
- WP4 Scenario dissemination and networking
Research in 2011
The main objective of the Research Area 5 Energy
scenario development is to provide scenario driven
knowledge and analyses to policy- and decision
makers to aid in the development and evaluation of
sustainable energy strategies.
RA5 will be a main area of integrating results from
the other research areas, and shall also provide in-
put to the other RAs regarding research questions
and needs of improved models. A first review of rel-
evant scenarios is currently under development in
WP1. The main purpose of this first review is not to
make a comprehensive list of any relevant scenar-
io study, but rather to establish a methodology to
structure and compare various scenario studies and
their assumptions.
In the LinkS project (RA2) an investment model for
electricity infrastructure in Europe is under devel-
opment and testing. The model has already been
successfully used on scenarios up to 2050 from the
SUSPLAN project (www.susplan.eu), and is now be-
ing used in the Energy Modelling Forum Subgroup
28 to examine infrastructure development under
the new PRIMES scenarios from the European Com-
mission’s Energy Roadmap 2050.
The integrated assessment model GCAM from the
LinkS project is now operative at SINTEF Energy
and is currently being modified to enable studies
of trade leakage related to Aluminium industry in
Europe.
Current work within RA5 is mainly focusing on inter-
national energy studies. A first RA5 workhop in April
is under planning where both an international top-
down and a national/regional bottom-up perspec-
tive will be discussed.
Figure from Joint Global Change Research Insitute showing regions in the GCAM tool.