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CenSES annual report 2011
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driven primarily by the direct limits, with the renew-
able portfolio standard and the energy efficiency
standards playing secondary roles in limiting green-
house gas emissions. We find that while the carbon
price is lower under the hypothetical protocol than
it would be under the emissions cap alone, the eco-
nomic cost of the portfolio is higher between 13
and 22 %.
Through the Energy Modeling Forum subgroup 28
(EMF28) SINTEF Energi participated in a large-scale
model comparison exercise to illustrate different
technology pathways for cutting European green-
house gas emissions by 80 % by 2050.
A subtask was dedicated to the need for energy
infrastructures under different climate mitigation
scenarios, and SINTEF Energi used the multi-area
power market simulator EMPS to analyze two of the
EMF28 scenarios in greater detail and to calculate
profitable investments in cross border transmission
capacities as the shares of renewable generation in-
crease.
Cost benefit analyses of transmission expansion al-
ternatives are carried out by comparing operational
cost savings in the Day Ahead market with the in-
vestment cost of additional transmission capacity.
The two scenarios show similar need for cross bor-
der transmission capacity up to 2025, and then the
development towards 80 % GHG emissions reduc-
tions in the second scenario causes a much higher
need for transmission capacity to integrate larger
shares of renewables.
Depending on the share and location of renewable
generation, there is also considerable difference in
cross border flows and total utilization of connec-
tions. Very few network studies with comparable
time scale exist, but comparisons show that our re-
sults are in line with the results from similar studies.
Several papers will be submitted to a suitable jour-
nal from the infrastructure subtask.
Finally, two dedicated RA5 workshops have been
arranged to discuss the design and scope of sce-
narios for the CenSES partners. A challenge here is
to create an environment that involves all the vari-
ous scientific interests and methodologies from the
CenSES partners in the scenario study. This work will
continue in 2013.
ments in 2030 will primarily focus on wind
power and nuclear power. Fossil fuel will
be significantly reduced. Investments in the
fields of bio-CCS and natural gas with CCS will
increase considerably towards the year 2050. There
will also be more wind power and nuclear power.
Whether the energy system of the future will be
dominated by decentralized renewable energy or
centralized carbon-free thermic power (nuclear
power and fossil fuel with CCS-handling), will have
significant influence on how energy infrastructure
should be developed.
In LinkS, NTNU and SINTEF Energi analyze how the
European power and gas grid must be upgraded
towards 2050 depending on which development
we expect in the energy production mix. The pre-
ferred energy mix in different scenarios depends on
climate and energy policy in Europe, available (and
acceptable) technologies, their cost and their de-
Andreas Schröder and Asgeir Tomasgard at CenSES annual
conference in November. Photo: Claude R. Olsen
velopment. On the other hand is it is important to
understand the effects for Norway under different
European and global climate policy regimes. Under
such uncertainty, most likely the development of
the Norwegian energy system will depend on the
long-term agreements we make with other coun-