Basic HTML Version
CenSES annual report 2011
18
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RA 5 consists of four work packages
- WP1 Scenario definition and user interaction
- WP2 Scenario analysis supervision
- WP3 Performance monitoring and research iden-
tification
- WP4 Scenario dissemination and networking
Research in 2012
Work in CenSES scenario development in 2012 has
been performed partly within RA2 (more specifical-
ly the LinkS project) and partly within RA5.
Together with LinkS partner Joint Global Change Re-
search Institute, SINTEF Energi submitted a paper to
Journal of Climate Policy entitled “The EU 20-20-20
Energy Policy as a Model for Global Climate Mitiga-
tion”. In this paper we consider the effectiveness and
cost of extending the so-called “EU 20-20-20”meas-
ures in time and ambition and propagating them to
the rest of the world. While most of the world has so
far enacted relatively modest measures to mitigate
that all proposed European projects have been can-
celled. There is also a great deal of popular opposi-
tion to carbon dioxide storage in many countries.
In the project LinkS, PhD candidate Christian Skar
and his supervisors Professor Gerard Doorman and
Professor Asgeir Tomasgard at NTNU consider how
global climate goals affect the energy mix in
Europe. The LinkS models for Europe take as in-
put the energy mix from the GCAM model (a
model from Joint Global Change Research In-
stitute). GCAM presents scenarios with more
carbon dioxide capture and storage and more
nuclear power in 2050. In a scenario where
the concentration of greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere stabilize at 450 ppm by the year 2100,
they actually get negative carbon dioxide emissions
by using bio-CCS (carbon capture and storage from
biofuel-driven power plants).
According to the GCAM scenarios invest-
Nobody knows what the energy situation will be
like in 2050, but many different models have been
developed to consider which energy sources and
technologies will gain ground and which ones will
be weakened. It is exciting – and confusing – that
the different models paint very different pictures.
A number of scenario studies for European energy
supply consider nuclear power an essential part
in the energy mix needed to reach climate goals.
However, PhD candidate Andreas Schröder from
DIW Berlin and his supervisor, Professor Christian
von Hirschhausen from TU Berlin and DIW Ber-
lin, believe that there is no future in nuclear pow-
er. According to their tests based on the model
EMELIE-ESY, nuclear power will be almost non-
existent in the EU by 2050. Their model does not
give much hope for Carbon Capture and Storage
(CCS) either.
The reason is the lack of successful projects and
Different scenarios - different energy futures
RA 5 Scenario Development
climate forcing, the EU has established an aggres-
sive portfolio with explicit near-term targets intend-
ed to be the first step in a long-term strategy to limit
climate forcing.
The present energy policy of the EU is based on the
three main“pillars”: Reducing greenhouse gas emis-
sions, improving the security of supply and increas-
ing the region’s competitiveness. It calls for reduc-
tions of 20 % in greenhouse gas emissions and 20 %
improvements in energy efficiency and a minimum
requirement of 20 % renewable energy in final en-
ergy demand, plus a minimum of 10 % renewable
energy use in transport by 2020.
In the analysis, we create a hypothetical protocol
which begins in the EU and is systematically ex-
tended to eventually include the global commu-
nity. We find that the hypothetical program leads
to very substantial reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions, dramatic increases in use of electricity,
and substantial changes in land-use including re-
duced deforestation, but at the expense of higher
food prices.
The greenhouse gas emissions reductions are