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CenSES annual report 2013
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RA 5 Scenario Development
RA 5 consists of four work packages
•
WP1 Scenario definition and user interaction
•
WP2 Scenario analysis supervision
•
WP3 Performance monitoring and research
identification
•
WP4 Scenario dissemination and networking
Research in 2013
The main objective of RA5 is to provide scenario driv-
en knowledge and analyses to policy- and decision
makers to aid in the development and evaluation of
sustainable energy strategies. Initially RA5 has focused
on analysing scenarios based on input from the LinkS
project and projects related to CenSES:
•
SUSPLAN (EU FP7): Development of regional and
Pan-European guidelines for more efficient inte-
gration of renewable energy into future infrastruc-
tures. 4 scenarios for renewable energy in Europe
to 2050
•
Zero Emission Buildings (FME): 5 scenarios for de-
velopment of European CO2 emissions to 2050
•
CEDREN (FME): Scenarios for exchange of balanc-
ing power between Norway and the EU
•
KPN Linking Global and Regional Energy Strate-
gies (LinkS): Development of European electricity
infrastructure under global climate mitigation
scenarios (reported under RA2)
•
Energy Modelling Forum (EMF) subgroup 28:
Development of electricity infrastructure under
scenarios from EU’s Energy Roadmap 2050
•
Nordic ETP (IEA/Nordic Energy Research):
4 scenarios for the Nordic region under ETP
•
Norstrat (Nordic Energy Research): 4 scenarios for
carbon free Nordic power system in 2050
•
e-Highway2050 (RTE/ENTSO-E): 5 scenarios for
development of European electricity highways up
to 2050.
In 2014 and the future it is an ambition to develop a
set of CenSES scenarios based on input from all the
research areas in the centre.
The RA5 team has been involved in a number of activi-
ties and workshops in 2013. The most relevant ones
are:
•
Several meetings and a Nordic workshop on sce-
narios for a carbon neutral Mid-Nordic region by
2050, organized by Sør-Trøndelag Fylkeskommune
•
Workshop on Sustainable Energy Systems 2050 in
Stockholm, organized by Nordic Energy Research
•
IIASA-Norwegian collaboration workshop ´Holistic
approaches to global challenges”, organized by
University of Bergen
•
Workshop on Nordic ETP-2 in Oslo
•
External advisor on scenario development to
Renewable Grid Initiative (www.renewables-grid.
eu).
In addition to two papers from the EMF subgroup 28’s
analysIs of EU scenarios (1 accepted for publishing, 1
in review), major publication is performed in the LinkS
project in collaboration with RA2: 14 peer-reviewed
international papers are submitted (of which 7 are
published or accepted for publishing), 10 books and
reports are published and 56 presentations are given
at various international conferences and meetings. In
collaboration with WP2.2 and FME CEDREN we are also
publishing a CenSES Position Paper “Norway´s role as a
flexibility provider in a renewable Europe”.
The ongoing discussions with Nordic Energy Research
on a Nordic ETP-2 may also lead to a joint KPN pro-
posal with Nordic scenarios and analyses. At least one
new KPN proposal is planned for 2014.
In addition we will continue our activity to increase
cooperation with international partners. It is expected
that the first scenario studies based on the Multimod
equilibrium model for energy systems and markets.
will appear in 2014. This is a joint initiative with DIW
Berlin, TU-Berlin and Tsinghua.