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CenSES annual report 2013
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RA2 consists of four work packages:
•
WP1 Modelling technologies and technology
learning
•
WP2 End use demand and energy efficiency
•
WP3 Including new functionality in energy sys-
tem and market models
•
WP4 Effects of global policy on national and re-
gional energy systems.
Research in 2013
A variety of energy systems models are used by re-
searchers and PhD students. Two of the models have
been used in the Energy Modeling Forum’s analysis
of the infrastructure for electricity and natural gas in
Europe towards 2050. In addition to new functional-
ity in existing models, new models have also been
developed; a new model for infrastructure investment
in electricity and a new model for analyzing the value
of consumer flexibility in Smart Grids. Work has also
been done on improving the modeling of uncertainty
as well as the representation of uncertainty in the
models.
A large part of the work for preparing the Position
Paper “Norway’s role as a flexibility provider in a
renewable Europe” has been carried out within the
research area. The position paper discusses the
RA 2 Energy Systems and Markets
possibilities for Norway to provide flexibility services
to a European energy system with an increased share
of non-dispatchable energy sources towards 2050.
The combination of Norwegian hydro power and
natural gas resources are considered in the paper.
Parts of the analysis in this position paper have been
conducted with one of the models that have been
developed within this research area.
An important work on modeling future energy de-
mand started in 2013. Several workshops with user
partners and research partners have identified the
activities and the use of energy demand projections
within CenSES. Following this, a report describing
activities, use and present status of existing energy
demand projections were published in 2013.
In cooperation with related research projects, two
scientific papers within the area of energy demand
projections were published in 2013. Work on devel-
oping a common energy demand projection within
CenSES, and with participation from several user - and
research partners in CenSES, started in 2013. The work
continues in 2014 and will be finalized with writing a
position paper on ‘Future energy demand’. The posi-
tion paper will include a reference (base) projection
for Norwegian energy demand until 2050, in addition
to alternative future scenarios.
LinkS was designed to analyse how global long-term
strategies can be used as guidelines for development
of energy supply and technology deployment in
regional energy systems. In order to produce recom-
mendations for policy development and regional
investment strategies, both quantitative and qualita-
tive research were applied.
Until an international climate change mitigation
agreement with binding targets is established, states
and regions that implement mitigation strategies on
their own initiative represent key actors for significant
emissions reductions.
LinkS introduces a novel scenario “Global 20-20-20”,
where a hypothetical protocol based on the EU 20-20-
20 policies is extended in time and space, to a global
scenario where an increasing number of the world’s
regions gradually adopt the EU policies.
Linking global and regional energy Strategies (LinkS)