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CenSES annual report 2011
13
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energy demand on the Norwegian energy system
with special focus on the renewable fraction.
A study of different past energy projections shows
the rapid change in nature of our expectations for
electricity demand. Less than a decade ago, the
discussion was focused on the need for gas power
plants and/or the need for electricity import to be
able to supply the electricity demand. This has now
changed to a debate on what to do with all excess
electricity.
A variety of energy systems models are used by re-
searchers and PhD candidates in CenSES. Improve-
ments and new functionality are implemented
in the different models to be able to give a better
description of the energy system. In addition, new
models are developed to study new market pos-
sibilities emerging from the increased dynamics in
the power system. In particular the possibilities for
demand side participation in the energy markets
through smart grids are considered. Improvements
have also been made with respect to modeling un-
certainty and dynamics both for long-term (invest-
ment) and short-term (operation) models. Studies
where models with different time aggregation and
level of detail are linked, are of special interest to us.
These studies can provide studies of capacity ex-
pansion recognizing the intermittent nature of solar
and wind energy and their need to be supplement-
ed by flexible alternatives. These models also need
to capture geographical details while maintaining a
link to global climate and energy policy.
Analyzing the effects of global policy on national
and regional energy systems, includes establishing
a modeling framework to analyze the interaction
between European and Nordic energy systems and
global policies, trends and developments. We aim
to identify synergies between global models and
develop a common modeling framework with focus
on synergies by a combined used of these models
instead of using the three models independently. A
first comparison between the global models ETSAP-
TIAM and GCAM has been performed. Common
input data on population and GDP has been used
by both models and a baseline scenario has been
run to compare the models capabilities and meth-
odologies. Further work is necessary in order to har-
monize the energy demand modeling capabilities
of these two models. Furthermore, a more detailed
comparison of primary energy supply is needed to
identify further differences in the methodologies.
several subgroups. The input for the studies was
scenarios from the European Primes model. The
CenSES models have been used to go in more de-
tail on long-term optimization of infrastructure
investments. Of special interest is of course the
need for import/export links between Norway
and the rest of Europe under different scenarios.
NTNU and SINTEF analyzed European infra-
structure for natural gas with the model Ra-
mona-Gas. This is a model originally developed
for infrastructure investments on the Norwe-
gian continental shelf, was now used to analyze
the European pipeline system for the first time.
Then the European electricity infrastruc-
ture was studied using the model EMPS.
Several papers will be published in ear-
ly 2013 with results from these studies.
Leader of RA 2, Kari Aamodt Espegren, and researcher Arne
Lind, both from IFE, view TIMES as a valuable tool for analyz-
ing the effects of EU directives. Photo: Claude R. Olsen