River simulator
will prevent conflicts
Jan Erik Kaarø
A Norwegian computer system and Norwegian expertise will be helping to prevent environment damage and conflicts over water resources in southern Africa. The database part of the new river simulator, developed in part by SINTEF and NTH, will be employed on the Zambezi River that flows through eight countries.
The system has already been tested in three Norwegian rivers. The Zambezi contract is the first commercial overseas contract that has been signed, and Professor Ånund Killingtveit of NTH's Dept. of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering is keen to see what sort of reception it will be given. Showing that the program works on river systems that are four times as big and the total area of Norway will be invaluable public relations. Both the NTH professor and Leif-Egil Lørum, who leads the project for the Norconsult International consulting company, believe that it ought to be possible to sell the river simulator in other parts of the world.
Seeds of conflict
The Zambezi River is three thousand kilometres long and is the fourth biggest river system in Africa. Several countries that border the river have launched major development plans, some of which conflict with each other. The most important threat comes from irrigation systems. South Africa and Botswana, for example, investigate the possibility to build a 1,300 km canal (the Cobe-Vaal Project) to provide their agricultural regions with sufficient water. This project could have consequences for Zimbabwe, Zambia and Mozambique, all of which lie below the inlet to the canal. However, every single country along the Zambezi has plans for dams, large or small, for drinking water, hydroelectricity or irrigation.The Norwegian hydrologists' project has been funded by SADC (Southern African Development Community), of which all eight Zambezi countries are members; Angola, Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi and Tanzania.
Difficult job
The task facing the Norwegian hydrologists is primarily to gather data on the Zambezi River and enter them into the simulator's database. This summer, a corps of local African hydrologists is being sent out to collect information on the climate, riverflow, water quality and water use."A sparse data foundation can be a problem. In some of the countries involved, such as Mozambique and Angola, the whole public-sector infrastructure has broken down as a result of civil war. The risk here is that the latest figures may be from the 70s. At any rate, we are bound to find that the sort of information we need has been collected and processed in very different ways", says Killingtveit.
The database is installed in SADC's headquarters in Lesotho, and early next year Killingtveit will be principal instructor of a course on the use of the base. In the next phase, the database will form the foundation for sector studies of how changes in current patterns of utilization of the water could affect the environment along the Zambezi. The Norwegian hydrologists hope to be given this job as well. However, project manager Lørum points out that competition from similar system that have been developed in the USA and Denmark, for example, is noticeable. He believes that the river simulator will enjoy a special advantage in areas in which conflicts can occur between further hydroelectricity development schemes and other types of water resource utilization.
Norwegian river developers have also built up a good reputation after forty years of carrying out projects in all parts of the world.
Important tool
All over the world, water is turning into the source of more frequent and more serious conflicts than oil. Without an integrated plan and consequence analysis of developments on the Zambezi, for example, the consequences could be serious for many of the 26 million people who live in the regions bordering the river. One step in the right direction of avoiding conflicts is a preliminary water use agreement which has been signed in the region.In addition to SINTEF, the Norwegian Institute of Water Research (NIVA), and the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Administration (NVE) are taking part in the development of the Zambezi River database. The project is being led by Norconsult.